Who is on first? We are on FIRST

For the day in "The RING " it seems as if FREEWEST is the big story. Various have tried to dissect the price of the 2nd NORONT offer. It is for the TOTAL of FREEWEST, no spin off, and a warrant. Seems as it it isnt what the FREEWEST holders want. They seem unenthusiastic, in the light of the fact that more and more funds seem to be positioning themselves in FREEWEST stock. We know those guys dont play for pennies. My guess is they want a quick double or better but they want it quickly.
Another 52 week closing high, and the 2nd highest TSX volume so far. The Chart is CLASSIC, and suggests more to come. So far its still in the first quarter. I dont think we will see the HALF TIME show until well after Christmas. Hey how many Shopping Days 'til Christmas? Twenty-Five Days Shoppers ! ! ! I think FREEWEST may have a nice sack of goodies, in the ROF Chrome Project. How long do you think those boys and girls can wait to get their present, basically all the Chrome the West has ever wanted, in N.America ? A secure supply? A stratetgic secure supply?
A very potentially COMMERCIAL SUPPLY, that could be exported also? HMMM it seems to me that the Goodies are in FREEWEST's sack. I think there will have to be a very NICE BIG PLATE of MILK & COOKIES for SANTA MAC to leave this CHROME PROJECT Present.

I guess if the NICE BIG PLATE of COOKIES arent there, we might have to wait for the EASTER BUNNY ! Who will be SANTA ? Who will get the PRESNT? Maybe it will CLIFFS? XSTRATA?

No matter how you look at it, its a winner and a nice play.

VOLUME, Pinetree, et al, "Who's on First ?"

Ok, does it look like there are more actors here than we can view?? Someone wants the stock. Not wee little bits either. They are bidding on a valuable asset. Before 11 AM today we have a new 52 week high, trading, trading 73-74 at good volume, almost 5 MIL before 11 AM.

So now what? Refer to the previous post, that's my idea. This is the beginning.

TA, starting with the oldest Breakout First

Lets look. On the top chart, WEEKLY, it Broke out on 10/5. It has now targeted a projected $1.89 [ Canadian ]. WEEKLY charts require longer to work out than Daily.

Next chart down. DAILY it Broke out 11/23 and now targets a projected $1.48 CDN.
DAILY charts take less time to work out than WEEKLY but more
more than HOURLY.

Now, the HOURLY. It has broken out today 11/30 and targets a projected $ 1.18.

Basically no more comment is required here as the pattern is clear. The closer targets are lower than the longer targets but the stock is "stair-stepping" its way toward each objective. Despite all screams and hollers and moaning and groaning to the contrary the stock has kept moving.

SHORT ANSWER / CONCLUSION ? IMO, the stock keeps moving. Technically, the volume keeps confirming what, IMO, I am seeing in price. Its your money, you decide

HOLA another OFFER? NPV & Math. TA next post

I am comfortable in thinking that the mining professionals are better informed than others in the arena of the RING of FIRE. I am also more impressed when serious companies put themselves out there for all to see. Working on this knowledge, I then
decided to use some data presented by CLIFFS in their offer for FREEWEST. The data I am using here is what has been presented by CLIFFS with some slight inclusions to assure myself I included most of the other outside possibilities.

I am doing this to check the potential logic and reasonableness of my Preliminary Technical Analysis conclusions. I do so because this process going on NOW in the "RING of FIRE" can seem maddeningly slow and we all want results NOW NOW NOW !

Here is the link for the NPV caculator.

http://www.investopedia.com/calculator/NetPresentValue.aspx?viewed=1

Further my primary idea is that the simpler we keep this, the closer to reality we will end up. I say that meaning we pursue ALL avenues with an eye to simplicity.
We use all Intell and all Evidence, but we use it in its simplest context.

To be fair, and not to guess whether we are in a DEPRESSION, RECOVERY or TEOTWASKI
I used 3 interest rates in the NPV to simulate all three conditions. Five % for depression, 8% for RECOVERY, and 12% for "THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT."

The next input, NUMBER 2 is the life of the mine which is " 30 YEARS".

Intial cost, is the NUMBER 3 input figured at 800 MIL, but I added back the Scientific Wild Donkey Guess for the RAIL at $400 MIL, and "Project CREEP" for $200 MIL. to attempt to give some flex to again what are "Guessimates" based on CLIFF's figure given since they went public with their First offer for FREEWEST.

The next FIVE inputs are simply expected cash flow in the first 5 years, NONE, but since the formula demanded an input, I used 0.01 in the first five slots.

The next FIVE inputs were the expected REVENUE / CASH FLOW from the project, figured at 1.4 BIL per year, current dollars.

All these inputs stay STATIC, Except the Interest Rate. Now using the 8% rate

We get a NET PROJECT VALUE NOW - Now - > now, of 3.84 BIL, after taking out the comprehensive estimated cost of the project. Discount that by 8% to now and the NET, NEt, net Present Value of the project is $2.44 Billion.

THATS THE NPV of all the future dollars in NOW DOLLARS, not share price.

NOW FOR THE MATH. This deposit at this price will assure CLIFFS' dominance over a lot of the stainless market. That is of value to CLIFFS but not figured in here.
We can explore that later. Lets go back to the VALUE of the RING of FIRE Chrome Freewest Project. I don't feel greedy thinking FREEWEST Shareholders should be rewarded for their Risk-Bearing by profiting to the extent of 1 year of profit from the FREEWEST RoF Chrome project.

WHAT IS ONE YEAR'S PROFIT FROM THIS PROJECT? Lets go back to the conference call, when one of the Analysts from the BIGGIES asks CLIFFS what their profit will be from this FREEWEST RoF Chrome Project. So the CLIFFS guy that their COST is : ".... it is in the lowest quartile." WOW, now lets speak ENGLISH. My understanding of the English language and both finance and English are my mother tongues, is that it means the COST is in the LOWEST QUARTER. No doubt many will turn the meaning but if you listened to the teleconf, you now the obvious pride with which that answer is delivered and how happy the analysts were with that answer.

At this point it does not take a "Weatherman to tell which way the wind is blowing"
ala Bob Dylan. The non-verbal message [ " wink and a nod" ] here is that all the parties in that conversation loved that answer.

In brief, if the cost is 25% of the revenue, then what is left is 75%. To me the math is too simple to be ignnored. Seventy-Five percent of the gross annual gross revenue for the project would be NET revenue for the project or 1.05 BILLION.
Lets round off and simply divide the 1 Billion by say, 215 Mil shares of FREEWEST.
BINGO we get $4.65 per share. So far we have used the figures from the most savvy and seasoned professionals out there, CLIFFS. They might not want to invest that much in acquiring the project UNLESS THEY MUST . It IS understood that no one pays more than they must, neither you nor I.
So, if you listened early on in the CLIFFS teleconf you heard them say as I paraphrase THEY WILL TRUMP ANY OTHER OFFER. If you take them at their word, well the conclusion is inescapbable, hold your shares to the end of the process and as yet, there is no end in sight, even the Jan shareholders meeting is NOT an endpoint.

Next post we can look at a bit of TA.

G'Man's contributed Article on Chrome Deposit

This is an article submitted by a FREEWEST Shareholder. His hope is that “RING of FIRE Mining Camp Blog” become a clearning house for FREEWEST shareholders considering the merits of the current offers on the table from CLIFFS RESOURES and NORONT RESOURCES. I think his article contains a lot of basic information important to anyone investing in “The RING”, and so applies widely to others than FREEWEST, NORONT, or CLIFFS. I have editted it for space, but tried to maintain the spirt of his meaning.

“I ask all visiting here who know FWR shareholders to tell them about this site :

http://rof-miningcamp.blogspot.com .”

“....I am not in favor of either offer (yet)[italic's by editor] for my FREEWEST shares...... but I will try to simplify.....”

“CHROMITE -.... seperates within large bodies of magma. The Great Dyke, in souther Rhodesia is
about 550 KM long by 3-10 KM wide. The Kemi Deposits in Finland are a rock 15 KM long by 0.3KM – 2 KM wide.” “....the magma that has chromite, has platinum group metals, some gold, and and nickel, and copper as well as a very small percentage of the total mass.”

“Nickel -Copper “ “....Like oil and water, the Nickel and Copper drop out of the magma solution and get dammed up on the sloping sidewalls of the magma chamber.”

“Chromite... could settle ouot in a gravitational setting near the base of the chamber....
could drop out from silica contaimination as pure crystals.....
selective crystalizaton can put them on walls.....
pressure changes also play a factor.....in placement of crystalization.....

thick layers mean the condition persisted for a long time[forming crystals].....”

“Platinum Group Metals .....also are concentrated in layered intrusions. Narrow one [ 1 ] meter bands ...they go for long distances....” “ There have been some excellent assays of platinum metals in the ROF....” “...KWG did some assays on their cores → here
are the links to their press releases about them:

http://www.kwgresources.com/news/index.php?&content_id=173

http://www.kwgresources.com/news/index.php?&content_id=170

“....Other ROF companies have had interesting results for Platinum Group Metals.”

SUMMARIZING

The Ring of Fire is an area of “Magmatic Segregation Deposits” of : Copper, Nickel, Chromite,
and Platinum Group Minerals.
The known Chromite deposit of FREEWEST on the NE to NORONT on the SW is about
15-20 KM.

Other sulfide deposits have been located in nearby properties, not all from Magma, in the ROF.

The distribution & concentration of Platinum Group Minerals is not yet known now.

What we know NOW;

This might be scientific guesswork, containing errors or omissions but it is herein in the sprit of clarity and information that I write and publish this.

The Chromite deposits of FREEWEST, NORONT & KWG are supposed to be subject to
NI 43-101's published before the end of 2009, but there appears considerable slippage in this date.

CLIFFS RESOURCES accepts as reall 30 years production @ 2 Million tonnes per year for
the FREEWEST Deposit. They show this production into 800K tonnes of Ferro-Chrome for 80 cent
a pound for a REVENUE of 1.4 Billion Dollars per Year from this deposit.
CLIFFS estimates their capital expense [ CAPEX ] at 800 Mil plus 400 for the RR, whomever builds or funds it.”

EDITOR NOTE: In the conference Call CLIFFS did, concering the PROFIT margin in this deposit
one of the CLIFFS officials in the meeting when pressed suggested that at the CURRENT TAKE OUT
price and the Current CAPEX, that from the 1.4BILLION REVENUE, the gross cost of producing that 1.4 Billion revenue would be, and I quote “ IN THE LOWEST QUARTILE”, leaving 1 BILLION or more as NET REVENUE for this deposit.

Part of “G-Man”'s movtivation was to attempt to help FREEWEST stock holders decide what to
do. Here I will upstage him and day, with the current CLIFF's offer rated at costing CLIFF's about
150 Mil.,and say that with the first year's PROFIT rated at about 1 BILLION, the next offers for
FREEWEST's chromite deposit should change by an ORDER OF MAGNITUDE. Given the nature of bidding, the low ball abusive mergers we have seen due to the “Financial Crises”, etc, etc, etc,
ad nausem, the actual bid for FREEWEST's CHROM DEPOSIT should ratchet up to 1 Billion divided by by the total diluted shares of FREEWEST which I estimate at 215 Million. You do the math.

That is if the bidding stays rational. Bidding may end under or over that number. All involved know the mechanic's and behaviours. So far there are six weeks in the next window [ approximately ] to a FREEWEST shareholder vote. If FWR shareholders do the math and come up with 1 BILLION divided by 215 million shares, and come up with a value for the CHROMITE alone at $4.65 @ share,
I dont think the deal will be approved.

Lots of time, plenty of bidders and the action is just heating up as the ground cools down for the winter drilling season in the RING of FIRE. Its getting HOTTER in the RING of FIRE.

Thanks to Anon. from Stockhouse for the quoted article.

Ring of Fire is a hot topic, Globally

As the hits keep coming, Globally, logically since this the world has shrunken a lot.

Basically "The RING" is under and around the "ONTARIO" on that map, in a rough sense.

Summarizing, most of the readers of the very unscientific but interesting polls

HOLD Noront & Freewest the most, the rest of the others about half as much.

THINK Xstrata will be the next bidder by a 3::1 margin over the 2nd, which is VALE

WOULD HOLD a Major Major Miners stock by 2::1 over those not wishing to/undecided

FEEL the next Target company will be KWG, then PRB, then NOT, SPC & FNC.


RING of FIRE Mining Camp Blog is about the development of this camp and the companies within it , past, present and future. You are invited to take part, submitting articles and information we hope will add to the growth of the camp by adding to the easily available information base NEW INVESTORS to the Camp will want
as they decide to look around.

I have put the websites of the best known companies on the links and solicit contributions for materials to assist. Presentations and YouTube clips or links can also be listed.

The current ongoing" BIG THING" is the development of Chrome in the southern half of "The RING". We have the DeBeers mine "VICTOR" to the east and the "Musselwhite" mine of Gold Corp, to the west. The mineralization is all around, and at some point, the "CAMP" could extend in every cardinal direction. There are enough existing & developing or re-worked mines to indicate this area may be underlain by much more mineralization.

Reported in quantity are Nickel, Copper, Platinum Group Minerals, Chrome and as yet what else, I am not aware of. Anything else can also be covered here, as it as likely as not that "The RING" has more to offer for mineral exploitation.

Until modern technical prospecting means gave us the clues to look deeper, it was all unprofitable moose pasture. A lot of it will always be moose pasture, the gods be thanked, especially if you like moose, wilderness, northern lights, and and all that goes with northern living. Proximity to markets as shown on the map assure that now found, and with the initial reason [ large quantities of ingredients for stainless steel ] discovered and being defined, the infrastructure required to develop a mining camp will come. Probably soon.

Economics drives politics which then attempts to shape economics. The items in the matrix of mineral development are many, and complex, but if the economics weren't there, this Camp would not be developed. The economics ARE in place and the Camp WILL be developed regardless of where they might be transported, refined or consumed.

So far only the Juniors and one Mid-Tier MAJOR have shown their first card. That leaves a lot of hands unshown and unseen now. Since time and tide wait for no one, more will come out as the clock ticks. The first part is like a form of Dutch Auction, where the offered price is lowered increment by increment until the FIRST bidder gets the prize - with every price tick downward the tension increases by leaps and bounds, until BINGO, someone can stand it no longer, and no one knows when that might be. Lest the prize gets away from them, the bidding will start. That awareness that the game is afoot is spreading amongst ROF stockholders. Its also much on the minds of the lurking bidders. STAY TUNED.

Pretty Pictures - WOWZER where is that volume from?

I think the volume shows the interest in the ROF happenings. As much as I think the CLIFFS deal for FREEWEST is under-priced now, I was pleasantly surprised to see the MASS volume that materialized, and not surprised some of it was PNP, but hey. I think another holder noticed that the stock always surged up when it dropped to 62. I dont think these guys went in looking at 8 cents, that would go against their nature. I also dont think they want CLIFFS stock either.

PROBE is off on a MASS volume tangent also, which, I am sure part of is simply retail speculation, but I am thinking is not all RETAIL. No proof yet, but its the kind of thing you get hunches about.

Funny, the old saying is "Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News." which basically says that once the news is confirmed it is of no use in driving up the stock.

Rumors, although impossible to verify or pin down, are in fact sometimes hints and clues and other times bait like the Red Herring in a misdirection play. I dont hear much in the way of rumors but I do pay attention. Seems to me any source of Intell can be evaluated to see how good it might be. Seems senseless to ignore any Intell without evaluating it.

Who's Who in the Major Major Mining World

these guys are our audience of bidders plus the occasional wild card [ CLIFFS ];

MT - Mittal- Russian Steel producer;

AAUKY - Anglo - basic Oppenheimer / Rothschild archetype company, basic Euro Interests;

XSTRATA - oh yes just a little interest there;

VALE - Huge steel and ferro alloy company;

BHP - Again, only a little huge;

RTZ - Rio Tino has been seen nosing around the RING;

TCK - Home grown, TECK might not be a perfect fit, but they are big enough ;

Impala Platinum - they already have a piece of the action, looking for more?

I think that is a small sampling of whom is watching the RING of FIRE.

Their market caps run up to almost 200 BILLION, so no matter the crises there is cash and stock enough to buy this Whole RING of FIRE, when they so desire.

That is not a complete list and doesnt cover the governmental or nationally based funds, so there are lots, lots of potential bidders for the RING of FIRE.

That does not assume anyone wants to own a Major Major or even a Mid Tier Major but the value lies in how YOU get the value out of your RING of FIRE stock.

Drilling Season is upon us, in the RING of FIRE

and everyone from the Major Major to the tiniest of Juniors are playing close attention to the current tidal wave of interest in the mineral values in the RING.

Who started what doesn't matter as much as who gets what. Who gets what has been
the primary element of the struggle to - date.

Noront announced its unsolicited all stock offer [ 1 share of Noront for each 4 shares of FREEWEST ][ as unissued, this would have resulted in a 1/3 dilution for all shareholders, new and old ] in early October and was greeted with great skepticism by both the Market and FREEWEST Holders. FREEWEST management was more direct and called for an outright rejection of the offer and advised against tendering any shares to Noront. While Noront has not publicized how many shares it did obtain, subsequent events seemed to make this offer untenable, as FREEWEST's price moved far and away better than Noront would have penciled out to be.

FREEWEST and its holders maintained that CLIFFS [ former CLEVELAND-CLIFFS ] of Cleveland, Ohio, had the inside track and would make a superior offer to Noront.

On Nov 23rd, FREEWEST CEO "Mac" Watson, announced just such an offer by CLIFFS, with an estimated value of 70 cents per share of Freewest, for their RING of FIRE
Chromite properties. That is where it stands as of this moment. Theoretically, the NORONT deal is open until Noront says it is not, or until the FREEWEST stockholders vote on the CLIFFS deal. That part is about 6 weeks out. So for a minimum of 6 weeks there is going to be a virtual donnybrook about the values attached to RING of FIRE Properties, the bidders and those sought after. More will be posted here about such.